Why Has No One Mentioned The Prospect Of Dumping Millions Of Incompatible Machines ?

Haydon · Jul 27, 2021

I polled my household, we will have junked 6 Windows devices by October 2025. We will replace only half of them (3), the rest will be non-Windows phones and tablets, and a Mac laptop. Apart from the amount of junk, I am also surprised by the drop of number of Windows devices. Perhaps that's one reason why Windows 11 can run Android natively, trying to counteract a trend.

jimbo45 · Jul 27, 2021

All this is in realms of speculation -- who knows what we might be using by 2025 -- I wouldn't be surprised if we could start seeing decent holographic monitors etc -- those sorts of things though will need an inordinate amount of faster CPU processing and power of course. Just think with Holographic monitors you could have generalized GPU's - ideal for gamers etc --no driver worries.

Cheers
jimbo

Bree · Jul 27, 2021

jimbo45 said:
who knows what we might be using by 2025 -- I wouldn't be surprised if we could start seeing decent holographic monitors etc

How about the transparent displays as seen (by CGI) in Avatar?

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bobkn · Jul 27, 2021

jimbo45 said:
(snip) I wouldn't be surprised if we could start seeing decent holographic monitors etc --

(snip)

jimbo45 said:
Cheers
jimbo

Holographic?

I'd be very surprised. For true holograms, the amount of data in an image would have to be increased by orders of magnitude.

Example: consider a 27" UHD (3840X2160) monitor. It has a pixel pitch of about 0.16 mm. For a true hologram, the pixel pitch would need to be closer to 600nm. That'd be 259X the density, or 67k times as many pixels. (Less than I expected.) I can't say it's impossible, but that would be a highly accelerated rate of technology advance compared to the past 25 years.

I wouldn't even bet on glassless stereoscopic displays becoming available over the next 4 years. 3D TV has never gone beyond a niche market, and a number of high-end TVs (LG OLEDs) no longer support it.

jimbo45 · Jul 27, 2021

bobkn said:
(snip)

Holographic?

I'd be very surprised. For true holograms, the amount of data in an image would have to be increased by orders of magnitude.

Example: consider a 27" UHD (3840X2160) monitor. It has a pixel pitch of about 0.16 mm. For a true hologram, the pixel pitch would need to be closer to 600nm. That'd be 259X the density, or 67k times as many pixels. (Less than I expected.) I can't say it's impossible, but that would be a highly accelerated rate of technology advance compared to the past 25 years.

I wouldn't even bet on glassless stereoscopic displays becoming available over the next 4 years. 3D TV has never gone beyond a niche market, and a number of high-end TVs (LG OLEDs) no longer support it.

3D was much too early for the time and it wasn't very good --also having to wear those stupid glasses didn't help - especially if you usually wear ordinary glasses too.

Technology tends to move in very surprising ways -- 4 years is almost a geological age in current engineering -- I'm sure developments in holography are on going even if it takes 15 - 20 years --but it will come. It's just too good and convenient idea for it ever to remain in the realms of "Star trek and Science Fiction".

Cheers
jimbo

badrobot · Jul 27, 2021

If you can still use Win 7, that means you are okay and don't need to buy a Win 11 PC.
And I agree, your concern is very valid. But I think 2025 is just a soft target. It can be 2030, who knows.
I believe the published Windows 11 hardware requirements are just "recommended" specs. Or we may be allowed to use our old machines for "Home" editions only. We'll see.

Josey Wales · Jul 27, 2021

I donate all of my unused parts.

bobkn · Jul 27, 2021

jimbo45 said:
3D was much too early for the time and it wasn't very good --also having to wear those stupid glasses didn't help - especially if you usually wear ordinary glasses too.

Technology tends to move in very surprising ways -- 4 years is almost a geological age in current engineering -- I'm sure developments in holography are on going even if it takes 15 - 20 years --but it will come. It's just too good and convenient idea for it ever to remain in the realms of "Star trek and Science Fiction".

Cheers
jimbo

I'd hold out for a wireless direct interface to the brain. I'm no neuroscientist, but I believe that the human sensory system has a lot of tricks in place (like foveal vision) to limit the amount of information that needs to be processed.

I guess we could have holographic displays before other Star Trek technology, like matter transmitters and warp drives. I hope they get warp drives better than in the TV series: if memory serves, warp factor 3 is 27X the speed of light - much too slow for interstellar travel.

barman58 · Jul 27, 2021

The standard for previous Windows versions had been Five years of full support, (new features and bug fixes), followed by a further five years of extended support,(bug Fixes only), That was the advertised plan though it was not often met.

We have been given an end of support date for Windows 10 of 2025, the thing we need to be aware of is is this the end of full support or the end of extended support. Under the old system the end of full support would have been during 2020 and the extended support would end five years later in 2025.

Of course we have already been told that there will be a full update 21H2 toward the end of this year, and we have been told that windows 10 will not be left behind, therefore if the rules are followed then the end of extended support would be late 2026 at the earliest so we are still in the dark as to what will happen to Windows 10

There is also the assumption being made that Windows 11 will be released in the last quarter of this year for the holiday period , however that would mean that the OEM manufacturers would need a woking release copy in the next month or two which is unlikely given the early Beta stage of the current software

Wynona · Jul 27, 2021

ish4d0w said:
1. Exactly! I just wrote the same in the other topic. Windows 10 will have support for 5 more years. But still it is kind of strange for them to require 8th generation or later processors.

2. I suppose a 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th generation processor will be still usable 5 years later. It's not like there is a huge performance difference between a 7th or 8th gen and users don't care about security. (in which regard, a 8th gen is just as vulnerable and the same patches are available for both)

3. So yes, it's great for Windows 10 to remain supported for at least 5 more years, and I personally believe that they might extend it just as they did with XP (that was the other case where they left a lot of users behind who couldn't/didn't want to upgrade to Vista/7/beyond). They might set up a refugee camp with Windows 10 too, by extending its support.

1. Actually, Windows 10 will be supported until October 2025, which is just a couple months more than four years.

2. I have an HP with a 10th generation i7 10700 processor, which is supported by Windows 11. If I'm not mistaken, i7 processors 6th or 7th generation and back will not be supported. However, 7th or 8th generation i7 processors and forward will be supported. Here is a link:

Windows Processor Requirements

This specification details the processors that can be used by OEMs to manufacture Customer Systems that include Windows Products (including Custom Images).

docs.microsoft.com

3. Since MS didn't extend support other than security updates for Windows 7 & 8, it stands to reason support for Windows 10 won't be extended. I think extending support for four more years is the maximum Microsoft is willing to go.

rumplestiltskin · Jul 27, 2021

New technologies often require new hardware. (yeah, "duh")

If the TPM issue obsoletes tens of thousands of old machines -and- their owners decide to repurpose them into Linux boxes, then there will probably be that many fewer insecure (and probably infected) machines extant.

You can point fingers at Apple regarding similar behavior (upgrade to new hardware in order to upgrade to the new macOS). As a Mac consultant (retired), I repurposed dozens of machines per year; usually made 'em into Linux boxes although a few ended up running Windows in BootCamp. Even those clients who preferred to stick with their old machines running old versions of macOS (usually because they had old accounting software) managed to get by if we installed good anti-malware.

The point is that (as others have opined here) it isn't necessary to upgrade as long as you have good security software and, more importantly, practice safe computing.

Winuser · Jul 27, 2021

jimbo45 said:
All this is in realms of speculation -- who knows what we might be using by 2025 -- I wouldn't be surprised if we could start seeing decent holographic monitors etc -- those sorts of things though will need an inordinate amount of faster CPU processing and power of course. Just think with Holographic monitors you could have generalized GPU's - ideal for gamers etc --no driver worries.

Cheers
jimbo

You do know that if Holographics becomes a reality for all of us that gamers will be number two on the list of users.

johnlgalt · Jul 27, 2021

Haydon said:
I polled my household, we will have junked 6 Windows devices by October 2025. We will replace only half of them (3), the rest will be non-Windows phones and tablets, and a Mac laptop. Apart from the amount of junk, I am also surprised by the drop of number of Windows devices. Perhaps that's one reason why Windows 11 can run Android natively, trying to counteract a trend.

And if you were not 'forced' to buy new for Windows 11, how many of those devices would you say you and your family members would still be actively using by that time?

barman58 said:
The standard for previous Windows versions had been Five years of full support, (new features and bug fixes), followed by a further five years of extended support,(bug Fixes only), That was the advertised plan though it was not often met.

We have been given an end of support date for Windows 10 of 2025, the thing we need to be aware of is is this the end of full support or the end of extended support. Under the old system the end of full support would have been during 2020 and the extended support would end five years later in 2025.

Of course we have already been told that there will be a full update 21H2 toward the end of this year, and we have been told that windows 10 will not be left behind, therefore if the rules are followed then the end of extended support would be late 2026 at the earliest so we are still in the dark as to what will happen to Windows 10

There is also the assumption being made that Windows 11 will be released in the last quarter of this year for the holiday period , however that would mean that the OEM manufacturers would need a woking release copy in the next month or two which is unlikely given the early Beta stage of the current software

Based upon the Win11 announcement, it's full suppoort through Oct 2025, so I've been assuming that is full product support, with the additional 5 years of extended support. However, I am fully aware that I am assuming this.

rumplestiltskin said:
New technologies often require new hardware. (yeah, "duh")

If the TPM issue obsoletes tens of thousands of old machines -and- their owners decide to repurpose them into Linux boxes, then there will probably be that many fewer insecure (and probably infected) machines extant.

You can point fingers at Apple regarding similar behavior (upgrade to new hardware in order to upgrade to the new macOS). As a Mac consultant (retired), I repurposed dozens of machines per year; usually made 'em into Linux boxes although a few ended up running Windows in BootCamp. Even those clients who preferred to stick with their old machines running old versions of macOS (usually because they had old accounting software) managed to get by if we installed good anti-malware.

The point is that (as others have opined here) it isn't necessary to upgrade as long as you have good security software and, more importantly, practice safe computing.

It's those last three words that 90% of the world do not understand.

bobkn · Jul 27, 2021

Wynona said:
(snip)

3. Since MS didn't extend support other than security updates for Windows 7 & 8, it stands to reason support for Windows 10 won't be extended. I think extending support for four more years is the maximum Microsoft is willing to go.

There will be a Win10 21H2, as you may know better than I. Due more or less simultaneously with Win 11. How far MS will go after that, remains to be seen.

Haydon · Jul 27, 2021

johnlgalt said:
And if you were not 'forced' to buy new for Windows 11, how many of those devices would you say you and your family members would still be actively using by that time?

Well, that's the perplexing thing. I did not strongarm anyone in my household, the drop from 6 to 3 Windows devices happens organically, and so is the uptake of non-Windows devices. I looked at the rest of the family (outside the household) and it's even worse, everyone and their dogs appear to have moved towards phones mostly and tablets in some cases, that's all they need :scream:

Edit: I remember that the original Windows 8 GUI looked very much like a mobile GUI (even lacking a start button) Perhaps MS noticed the trend towards mobile at that time and wanted to go with that trend, as some people say. That did not go well as we all know. I am glad that the Windows 11 GUI looks like a desktop GUI (even looks like a Mac desktop GUI in my eyes)

Haydon · Jul 27, 2021

rumplestiltskin said:
The point is that (as others have opined here) it isn't necessary to upgrade as long as you have good security software and, more importantly, practice safe computing.

I have good old software from the era when software was licensed (as distinct from subscription based software). I could avoid subscription fees if I could continue running the good old licensed software on Windows 10 beyond 2025. If I protect the Windows 10 computer with a good anti-malware, say, MalwareBytes, and practice safe computing, would I be safe beyond 2025?

The other option to avoid subscription fees is to install the good old software on Windows 11. That should be possible since the good old software is running smoothly on Windows 10, but I am not sure.

Any thoughts?

Bree · Jul 28, 2021

Haydon said:
The other option to avoid subscription fees is to install the good old software on Windows 11. That should be possible since the good old software is running smoothly on Windows 10, but I am not sure.

I think you can be reasonably confident that it will work.

I too have plenty of 'good old software' I want to keep using, some over 20 years old. I have already tested restoring a system image of my main machine to a new 'Windows 11 ready' PC and upgrading that to Windows 11. Everything I have that can run in W10 is now running exactly the same in W11.

On another machine that has W11 but not my software I have also tested installing some of them. The install works too.

Haydon · Jul 28, 2021

Bree said:
I think you can be reasonably confident that it will work.

I too have plenty of 'good old software' I want to keep using, some over 20 years old. I have already tested restoring a system image of my main machine to a new 'Windows 11 ready' PC and upgrading that to Windows 11. Everything I have that can run in W10 is now running exactly the same in W11.

On another machine that has W11 but not my software I have also tested installing some of them. The install works too.

Assuming that you have only 1 license key like I do, did you deauthorize or uninstall before installing on the Windows 11 machine?

Or did you install on the Windows 11 machine without connecting to the Internet (to make sure things work) and then deauthorize or uninstall on the older machine?

I am exploring the best way to do it, software companies these days are spying on you for pirated software and that's only getting worse, you are guilty until proven innocent :scream:

Bree · Jul 28, 2021

Haydon said:
...did you install on the Windows 11 machine without connecting to the Internet (to make sure things work) and then deauthorize or uninstall on the older machine?

... I am exploring the best way to do it, software companies these days are spying on you for pirated software and that's only getting worse

No, I've connected it to the internet without issues.

For 20+ year old software those were innocent times as far as strict licensing went. My licensed software (PaintShop Pro 7.04 and Microsoft Autoroute 2000) didn't object to running on two machines at the same time. I don't have MS Office on this machine so can't test that, Office may well be more fussy about licensing issues. The rest of my 'golden oldies' do not require licences (Microsoft's Windows Movie Maker, for example). The only modern s/w that could have objected was Macrium Reflect Home v8 - and it hasn't (so far). The test was to find out if all the old software would run in W11 - it does.

Come the release of W11 to RTM I intend to wipe this test install from the new machine. I'll remove the Macrium licence key from the old PC before doing the final system image migration to the new hardware. Then I'll reinstate the key on the new machine before letting Windows Update upgrade it from W10 to W11.